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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego0.31+6.41vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.50+2.24vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.33-0.34vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.92+1.79vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+2.36vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-0.14vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.43-2.68vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California-0.16+0.76vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.62-2.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.11-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.18+0.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-1.82vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.20-1.60vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.62-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.41University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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4.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.500.1%1st Place
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2.66University of Southern California2.330.3%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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7.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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5.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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4.32University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
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8.76University of Southern California-0.160.0%1st Place
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6.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.620.1%1st Place
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8.82University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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11.51University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.200.0%1st Place
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9.99Arizona State University-0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Farrell | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Claire Hunt | 14.2% | 15.8% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Wong | 33.1% | 24.4% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Joseph Lausten | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Freeman | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 5.0% |
| Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Natalie Hopper | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| David Luu | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 21.7% | 30.9% |
| Cullen Quine | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| Cassandra Isaacson | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 19.6% | 31.0% |
| Sierra Apillanes | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.