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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.71+7.31vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.10vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.37vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+3.62vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.13vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.93vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.97-0.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.02vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.65+0.03vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+1.96vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52+0.08vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.44-3.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.09vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-6.26vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.31Fordham University0.713.8%1st Place
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4.1University of Pennsylvania1.7718.2%1st Place
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3.37Cornell University2.3824.2%1st Place
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7.62George Washington University0.934.3%1st Place
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3.87Georgetown University2.2017.7%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.2%1st Place
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6.86Old Dominion University0.975.8%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Naval Academy1.185.8%1st Place
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9.03Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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11.96Princeton University-0.320.9%1st Place
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11.08SUNY Maritime College-0.520.9%1st Place
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8.59Columbia University0.443.6%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.4%1st Place
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7.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.1%1st Place
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11.63Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Sofia Segalla | 18.2% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 24.2% | 20.2% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.7% | 16.4% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 28.5% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 17.4% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 16.9% | 15.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 24.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.