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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.65+8.06vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.39vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.22vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.88vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.44+3.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+4.94vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.97-0.21vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.12vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-1.51vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.71-1.68vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.07vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-4.17vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.20-9.06vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-2.11vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.06Christopher Newport University0.652.6%1st Place
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3.39Cornell University2.3823.8%1st Place
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4.22University of Pennsylvania1.7716.2%1st Place
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6.88U. S. Naval Academy1.186.3%1st Place
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8.65Columbia University0.444.0%1st Place
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10.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.5%1st Place
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6.79Old Dominion University0.975.9%1st Place
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7.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.8%1st Place
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7.49George Washington University0.935.5%1st Place
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8.32Fordham University0.713.9%1st Place
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10.93SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.5%1st Place
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3.94Georgetown University2.2017.2%1st Place
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11.89Princeton University-0.320.9%1st Place
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11.78Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Watlington | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.7% |
| Bridget Green | 23.8% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.2% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 15.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 17.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.2% | 17.5% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 18.8% | 28.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 18.4% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.