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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rochester0.42+3.67vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.77+0.94vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.82-1.27vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.48-0.68vs Predicted
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5McGill University0.33-0.12vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology0.98-2.03vs Predicted
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7Penn State University-1.44-0.51vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.42-3.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67University of Rochester0.420.1%1st Place
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2.94Queen's University1.770.2%1st Place
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1.73Fordham University2.820.5%1st Place
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3.32Cornell University1.480.1%1st Place
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4.88McGill University0.330.0%1st Place
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3.97Rochester Institute of Technology0.980.1%1st Place
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6.49Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
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4.67University of Rochester0.420.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Troche | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 24.9% | 27.8% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 17.6% | 24.0% | 25.5% | 18.4% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 52.8% | 28.7% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Forrer | 13.0% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.9% | 7.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Witt | 3.3% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 23.3% | 31.2% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hunt | 7.4% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 22.7% | 20.4% | 16.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 11.9% | 75.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Troche | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 24.9% | 27.8% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.