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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.90vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.36vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+4.86vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.32+7.98vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+4.00vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.44+2.44vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.77vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.97-1.15vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-0.64vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.99vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52+0.07vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.93-4.42vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.20vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-6.08vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.9Georgetown University2.2018.6%1st Place
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3.36Cornell University2.3823.9%1st Place
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7.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.5%1st Place
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11.98Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
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9.0Christopher Newport University0.652.9%1st Place
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8.44Columbia University0.443.5%1st Place
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4.23University of Pennsylvania1.7716.4%1st Place
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6.85Old Dominion University0.976.1%1st Place
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8.36Fordham University0.713.5%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy1.185.8%1st Place
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11.07SUNY Maritime College-0.521.6%1st Place
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7.58George Washington University0.934.5%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
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7.92St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.6%1st Place
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11.66Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.6% | 17.3% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 23.9% | 19.5% | 17.2% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 19.9% | 28.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.4% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 14.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.