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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.96+3.11vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+4.56vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+4.20vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.52+1.08vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.80-1.10vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University-0.84+3.10vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.24vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy0.26+0.53vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.16-2.17vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.43-1.87vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-4.68vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.73vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-0.34vs Predicted
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14Fordham University-0.35-3.62vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.32-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Cornell University1.9616.9%1st Place
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6.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.927.4%1st Place
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7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.2%1st Place
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5.08Old Dominion University1.5212.2%1st Place
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3.9Georgetown University1.8020.2%1st Place
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9.1Christopher Newport University-0.843.4%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.4%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Naval Academy0.264.0%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania1.167.2%1st Place
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8.13Columbia University0.433.9%1st Place
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6.32George Washington University1.077.6%1st Place
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10.27SUNY Maritime College-0.272.5%1st Place
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12.66Princeton University-0.970.6%1st Place
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10.38Fordham University-0.352.7%1st Place
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12.7Rochester Institute of Technology-1.320.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 16.9% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Marina Conde | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Doble | 20.2% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Linnea Forsberg | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 7.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 37.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 8.6% |
| Kristen McDonough | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 21.2% | 37.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.