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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University-0.84+8.12vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.16+4.82vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.80+0.97vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+2.38vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52+0.13vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.43+2.14vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.05vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.96-3.91vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.75vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.07-3.58vs Predicted
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11Fordham University-0.35-0.58vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy0.26-3.41vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.72vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-1.36vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.32-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.12Christopher Newport University-0.843.3%1st Place
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6.82University of Pennsylvania1.166.2%1st Place
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3.97Georgetown University1.8019.4%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.3%1st Place
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5.13Old Dominion University1.5211.2%1st Place
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8.14Columbia University0.434.5%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.9%1st Place
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4.09Cornell University1.9618.4%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.7%1st Place
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6.42George Washington University1.077.5%1st Place
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10.42Fordham University-0.352.2%1st Place
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8.59U. S. Naval Academy0.264.3%1st Place
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10.28SUNY Maritime College-0.272.1%1st Place
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12.64Princeton University-0.970.8%1st Place
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12.7Rochester Institute of Technology-1.321.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Smith | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Emily Doble | 19.4% | 17.1% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 11.2% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Winborne Majette | 18.4% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 9.0% |
| Linnea Forsberg | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 8.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 22.4% | 35.4% |
| Kristen McDonough | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 11.2% | 21.3% | 38.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.