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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.96+3.19vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.80+2.03vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+3.41vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.52+1.02vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.16+1.89vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+1.26vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.26+1.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.29vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.43-0.85vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.97+2.48vs Predicted
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11Fordham University-0.35-0.56vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.77vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.99vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.07-7.58vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.32-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19Cornell University1.9616.7%1st Place
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4.03Georgetown University1.8018.9%1st Place
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6.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.8%1st Place
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5.02Old Dominion University1.5213.4%1st Place
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6.89University of Pennsylvania1.166.6%1st Place
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7.26St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.9%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Naval Academy0.263.7%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.3%1st Place
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8.15Columbia University0.435.0%1st Place
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12.48Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
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10.44Fordham University-0.351.9%1st Place
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10.23SUNY Maritime College-0.271.9%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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6.42George Washington University1.077.1%1st Place
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12.63Rochester Institute of Technology-1.321.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 16.7% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 18.9% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 13.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Linnea Forsberg | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 22.4% | 34.6% |
| Lauren Murray | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 9.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 7.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kristen McDonough | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 19.6% | 38.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.