Race 1A

cedarfest

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Carly Irwin 6.8% 7.4% 8.7% 10.4% 10.8% 13.1% 12.4% 11.1% 9.3% 6.8% 2.6% 0.5%
Alex Day 13.5% 15.7% 14.1% 13.4% 14.1% 10.7% 7.7% 6.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Marco Constantini 11.0% 12.5% 14.3% 16.4% 13.0% 10.4% 8.4% 7.2% 4.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Emily Williams 10.8% 10.7% 13.4% 12.4% 14.1% 12.6% 10.2% 6.9% 5.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Jack Rutherford 6.3% 6.8% 9.2% 10.3% 10.8% 12.2% 10.9% 12.0% 10.1% 7.0% 3.4% 0.9%
George Prokop 2.2% 3.2% 3.9% 4.9% 5.7% 7.0% 8.6% 10.2% 14.5% 18.4% 15.8% 5.8%
Kassidy Kennedy 3.6% 5.0% 5.9% 6.8% 7.4% 9.3% 11.2% 11.6% 14.9% 13.2% 8.5% 2.5%
Arden Carleton 37.0% 27.4% 16.8% 9.6% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Keegan Aerts 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.4% 8.7% 11.4% 12.9% 17.8% 17.3% 4.3%
Keegan Beyer 4.3% 5.6% 7.6% 8.4% 8.9% 9.8% 13.7% 13.2% 12.5% 8.5% 6.0% 1.5%
Tiegan Witte 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 2.1% 3.6% 3.8% 5.5% 7.6% 10.0% 16.0% 29.3% 17.0%
Adam Bryan 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% 6.2% 15.2% 67.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.