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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.52+4.81vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.45+3.95vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+4.24vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.73+1.42vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.87+2.84vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-0.54vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.37-3.39vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.76-2.67vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.15+0.75vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.67-4.39vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.36-1.75vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.74-3.82vs Predicted
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13University of South Carolina-0.27-0.74vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University-1.15-0.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Northeastern University2.520.1%1st Place
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5.95Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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5.42College of Charleston2.730.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy1.870.0%1st Place
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5.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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3.61University of Rhode Island3.370.2%1st Place
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5.33Georgetown University2.760.1%1st Place
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9.75Eckerd College1.150.0%1st Place
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5.61George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.25Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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8.18Fordham University1.740.0%1st Place
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12.26University of South Carolina-0.270.0%1st Place
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13.27North Carolina State University-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah De Silva | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Petno | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Robertson | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Annie Hughes | 10.1% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hermus | 21.9% | 19.8% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rose Edwards | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Salomon | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 24.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% |
| Hannah McNomee | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 9.5% | 1.8% |
| Amanda Stapp | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Katherine Bozzuti | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 44.5% | 26.5% |
| McKenna Marquart | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 20.8% | 66.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.