Race 2A

cedarfest

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Marco Constantini 10.2% 12.4% 15.8% 15.5% 11.3% 11.6% 9.2% 7.1% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Arden Carleton 38.0% 28.2% 15.2% 8.4% 5.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Day 14.2% 15.2% 15.2% 14.9% 14.0% 9.9% 6.5% 5.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Carly Irwin 6.9% 7.6% 9.6% 11.3% 10.3% 13.0% 12.7% 10.2% 9.2% 6.3% 2.6% 0.2%
Jack Rutherford 5.7% 6.8% 9.7% 10.2% 11.0% 11.5% 13.2% 12.7% 8.9% 6.6% 3.0% 0.8%
Emily Williams 9.2% 11.5% 11.4% 14.0% 12.7% 12.4% 11.2% 7.0% 6.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1%
Kassidy Kennedy 4.3% 4.4% 5.3% 5.6% 8.2% 9.5% 11.3% 12.3% 13.5% 14.4% 8.7% 2.4%
Keegan Aerts 2.7% 2.6% 4.9% 5.0% 6.2% 6.6% 8.9% 11.4% 14.5% 17.4% 15.9% 4.0%
Keegan Beyer 4.5% 5.8% 7.0% 7.8% 10.9% 10.7% 11.6% 13.6% 11.8% 10.0% 5.3% 1.1%
George Prokop 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 4.6% 4.9% 7.3% 7.0% 11.1% 13.1% 19.7% 16.1% 6.9%
Adam Bryan 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 2.8% 3.5% 5.4% 14.9% 66.1%
Tiegan Witte 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 3.3% 3.7% 4.7% 6.4% 11.2% 13.9% 31.6% 18.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.