Race 4A

cedarfest

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jack Rutherford 5.9% 7.7% 8.2% 9.9% 9.3% 11.6% 13.1% 11.6% 11.4% 7.6% 3.1% 0.5%
Arden Carleton 37.9% 26.5% 16.0% 9.5% 5.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kassidy Kennedy 3.4% 4.3% 6.0% 6.2% 7.5% 7.8% 9.8% 13.2% 16.0% 14.1% 9.7% 2.1%
Emily Williams 8.8% 11.1% 12.7% 12.9% 11.5% 13.5% 10.9% 8.9% 5.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Alex Day 12.3% 13.2% 14.8% 13.0% 12.6% 12.8% 9.8% 6.2% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Carly Irwin 6.0% 7.4% 9.0% 9.3% 11.6% 10.4% 12.8% 13.3% 9.8% 7.1% 2.7% 0.4%
Ryan Dodge 9.7% 10.8% 10.8% 13.9% 13.8% 12.2% 10.1% 8.8% 6.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Keegan Aerts 2.5% 2.4% 3.5% 5.2% 5.5% 6.5% 8.3% 10.2% 15.4% 19.4% 16.0% 5.1%
Marco Constantini 10.1% 11.8% 13.0% 13.5% 13.7% 11.4% 10.1% 8.0% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1%
George Prokop 1.9% 2.8% 3.2% 3.8% 5.0% 6.5% 7.8% 10.8% 14.1% 19.3% 19.1% 5.6%
Adam Bryan 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.4% 4.2% 6.0% 13.8% 67.0%
Tiegan Witte 1.0% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0% 2.8% 3.8% 4.5% 6.2% 9.1% 16.4% 32.1% 18.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.