Race 4 - northeast-qualifier | College Sailing Data

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%

Within 2 Positions

1.4

Avg Position Diff

6

Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

1

Sophia Dimont & Ella Musso

SUNY Stony Brook

-1.30

+3.34

vs Predicted
2

Nathaniel Hartwell & Michael Saharov

SUNY Maritime College

0.50

-0.03

vs Predicted
3

Thomas Brearley & Kwame Adusei-Poku

U. S. Military Academy

-0.82

+0.72

vs Predicted
4

Chase O'Malley & Alexander Vincenti

Columbia University

-0.13

-1.27

vs Predicted
5

Griffin Jones & Freya Isenhart

U. S. Merchant Marine Academy

-0.87

-1.22

vs Predicted
6

Reid Chapman & Lena Davidson

Hamilton College

-1.45

-1.54

vs Predicted

🎯 Predicted Standings

4.34

Sophia Dimont & Ella Musso

SUNY Stony Brook

-1.30

6.5%

1st Place
1.97

Nathaniel Hartwell & Michael Saharov

SUNY Maritime College

0.50

43.4%

1st Place
3.72

Thomas Brearley & Kwame Adusei-Poku

U. S. Military Academy

-0.82

10.7%

1st Place
2.73

Chase O'Malley & Alexander Vincenti

Columbia University

-0.13

23.1%

1st Place
3.78

Griffin Jones & Freya Isenhart

U. S. Merchant Marine Academy

-0.87

10.2%

1st Place
4.46

Reid Chapman & Lena Davidson

Hamilton College

-1.45

6.3%

1st Place

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper	1	2	3	4	5	6
Sophia Dimont	6.5%	9.8%	13.2%	15.2%	24.6%	30.8%
Nathaniel Hartwell	43.4%	29.8%	16.3%	7.9%	2.4%	0.3%
Thomas Brearley	10.7%	14.2%	17.9%	21.8%	20.8%	14.6%
Chase O'Malley	23.1%	23.6%	24.8%	16.7%	9.2%	2.6%
Griffin Jones	10.2%	13.2%	17.2%	23.4%	19.8%	16.2%
Reid Chapman	6.3%	9.2%	10.6%	15.2%	23.2%	35.4%

Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.