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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.92+4.62vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University0.21+6.04vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.02+5.88vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+5.30vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.39-0.73vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+2.58vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.43+3.63vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+2.44vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-5.08vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.14-1.53vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-2.77vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+0.37vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.68-1.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.64+0.48vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.62-3.73vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.01-6.84vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego0.39-9.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62University of California at Berkeley0.920.1%1st Place
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8.04Santa Clara University0.210.1%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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9.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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4.27University of California at Los Angeles1.390.2%1st Place
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8.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Berkeley-0.430.0%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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3.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.2%1st Place
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8.47California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.1%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.680.0%1st Place
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14.48University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Berkeley-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.67University of California at San Diego0.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Markowitz | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Dylan Rinker | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 19.0% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Vidar Emil Sebastian Aspelin | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% |
| Alana McSween | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% |
| Ben Brough | 19.6% | 17.7% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| James Melvin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 15.0% |
| Dallas Butler | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% |
| Joseph Naro | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 44.5% |
| Grant Lin | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% |
| Tyler Hogan | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.