← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Berkeley1.57+2.77vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley1.09+2.96vs Predicted
-
3University of California at San Diego0.43+4.04vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Berkeley-1.33+9.11vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+0.20vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+4.11vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+2.11vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-0.37vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-3.82vs Predicted
-
10University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.95vs Predicted
-
11California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-0.34vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.97vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.89-1.40vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-1.18-1.51vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Davis-1.64-0.81vs Predicted
-
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-5.34vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Davis-1.55-2.96vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-1.35-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.77University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
-
4.96University of California at Berkeley1.090.1%1st Place
-
7.04University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
-
13.11University of California at Berkeley-1.330.0%1st Place
-
5.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
-
10.11University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
-
9.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
-
7.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.1%1st Place
-
5.18University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
-
9.05University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
-
10.66California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
-
9.03University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
-
11.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.890.0%1st Place
-
12.49University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
-
14.19University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
-
10.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
-
14.04University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
-
13.18University of California at Los Angeles-1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 20.0% | 19.2% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 11.6% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Keir Oxford Pope | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 14.2% |
| Joseph Lausten | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Belle Lemoine | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Levi Matsushima | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Liam Russell | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% |
| David Luu | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% |
| Joseph Naro | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 24.2% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Michelle Moua | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 17.3% | 21.5% |
| Sara Stratte | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 13.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.