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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+4.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.67vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.92+2.38vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+5.01vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.20+2.69vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.09-1.14vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.89+4.73vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.22vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+0.74vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-0.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.18+1.00vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.43-6.25vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.33-1.04vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-5.01vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.35-2.62vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-1.64-2.71vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.55-4.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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3.67University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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9.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.1%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Berkeley1.090.1%1st Place
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11.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.890.0%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.78University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.74California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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10.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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13.0University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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6.75University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Berkeley-1.330.0%1st Place
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9.99University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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13.38University of California at Los Angeles-1.350.0%1st Place
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14.29University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
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13.8University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Lausten | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 19.0% | 20.9% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belle Lemoine | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eric Witte | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Russell | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Natalie Hopper | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Levi Matsushima | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| David Luu | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Keir Oxford Pope | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Sara Stratte | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 16.0% |
| Joseph Naro | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 25.0% |
| Michelle Moua | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 19.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.