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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+8.42vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+3.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-1.33+10.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.43+2.92vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.11+3.87vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59+4.77vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.54+3.55vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.57-4.36vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.09-4.22vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.20-1.94vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.99vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.89+0.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-2.94vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-3.60vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.64-0.73vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-1.55-1.89vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.35-3.46vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.92-12.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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13.63University of California at Berkeley-1.330.0%1st Place
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6.92University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
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8.87University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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10.55University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Berkeley1.090.1%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.1%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.890.0%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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10.4California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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14.27University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
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14.11University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
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13.54University of California at Los Angeles-1.350.0%1st Place
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5.29University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belle Lemoine | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Lausten | 8.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keir Oxford Pope | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| Jason Barr | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 22.5% | 20.3% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 14.0% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Liam Russell | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Ben Gerber | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Levi Matsushima | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Joseph Naro | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 25.2% |
| Michelle Moua | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 22.9% |
| Sara Stratte | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| Leah Ford | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.