← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Berkeley1.57+2.79vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley1.09+3.03vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+6.17vs Predicted
-
4University of California at San Diego0.43+2.87vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Cruz0.20+2.77vs Predicted
-
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-0.62vs Predicted
-
7California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+3.65vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19+1.19vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.89+2.91vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles-1.35+3.59vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles0.92-5.51vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Davis-1.64+2.57vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-2.91vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-0.54-3.75vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-4.24vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-0.11-6.93vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Davis-1.55-2.83vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Berkeley-1.33-4.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.79University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
-
5.03University of California at Berkeley1.090.1%1st Place
-
9.17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
-
6.87University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
-
7.77University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.1%1st Place
-
5.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
-
10.65California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
-
9.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
-
11.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.890.0%1st Place
-
13.59University of California at Los Angeles-1.350.0%1st Place
-
5.49University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
-
14.57University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
-
10.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
-
10.25University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
-
10.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
-
9.07University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
-
14.17University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
-
13.23University of California at Berkeley-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 20.7% | 19.1% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Lausten | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Belle Lemoine | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Liam Russell | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.5% |
| Sara Stratte | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| Leah Ford | 12.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Naro | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 29.1% |
| Ben Gerber | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Jason Barr | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Natalie Hopper | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Michelle Moua | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| Keir Oxford Pope | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.