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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.09+4.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.92+3.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+2.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.20+3.72vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-1.35+8.35vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.43+0.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+1.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.57-4.39vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+1.19vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.54+0.87vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-0.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.11-2.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.64+1.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.55-0.18vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-1.33-1.65vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.89-3.98vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-6.22vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.19-8.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1University of California at Berkeley1.090.1%1st Place
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5.47University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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5.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.200.1%1st Place
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13.35University of California at Los Angeles-1.350.0%1st Place
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6.95University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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3.61University of California at Berkeley1.570.2%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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10.87University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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10.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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9.25University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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14.22University of California at Davis-1.640.0%1st Place
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13.82University of California at Davis-1.550.0%1st Place
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13.35University of California at Berkeley-1.330.0%1st Place
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12.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.890.0%1st Place
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10.78California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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9.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Witte | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 11.4% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Brocchini | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sara Stratte | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 17.4% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 23.8% | 18.1% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Jason Barr | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Thomas Niemisto | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Natalie Hopper | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Naro | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 26.0% |
| Michelle Moua | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 20.9% |
| Keir Oxford Pope | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| Liam Russell | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 6.5% |
| Levi Matsushima | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Belle Lemoine | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.