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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.92+9.20vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.80+4.46vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.70+8.49vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.37+4.40vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.61+1.97vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy2.81+3.92vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.40+0.07vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.35-0.71vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University3.26-1.67vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.62-3.89vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.64-0.26vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.87+2.38vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.62-6.78vs Predicted
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15Amherst College2.01-0.36vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.65-4.25vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.65-0.54vs Predicted
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18Harvard University2.41-5.20vs Predicted
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19Bates College1.67-2.67vs Predicted
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20Salve Regina University2.05-5.82vs Predicted
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21University of Connecticut-0.21+1.11vs Predicted
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23Williams College1.47-5.70vs Predicted
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24Brandeis University1.25-5.91vs Predicted
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25McGill University1.60-8.50vs Predicted
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26Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-6.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.920.0%1st Place
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6.46Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.49Bowdoin College2.700.0%1st Place
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8.4Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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6.97Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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10.92Maine Maritime Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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8.07Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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8.29Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.33Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
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7.11University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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11.74Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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15.38Middlebury College1.870.0%1st Place
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7.22Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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14.64Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
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11.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.650.0%1st Place
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16.46University of New Hampshire1.650.0%1st Place
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12.8Harvard University2.410.0%1st Place
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16.33Bates College1.670.0%1st Place
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14.18Salve Regina University2.050.0%1st Place
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22.11University of Connecticut-0.210.0%1st Place
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17.3Williams College1.470.0%1st Place
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18.09Brandeis University1.250.0%1st Place
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16.5McGill University1.600.0%1st Place
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19.26Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian Bareuther | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Billy Rohman | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| William Hutchings | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Poole | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Clark | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Brown | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Bernie Roesler | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Black | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Steven Drapcho | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Edwards | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Ryan Byrne | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Cason | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Stephen Byrne | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Catherine Stavola | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 59.0% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% |
| Jared Dunn | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 8.3% |
| Leif Macdonald | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Robert Pierce | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 20.6% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.