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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.04+7.19vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.23+4.48vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+5.33vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.97+3.45vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.87+2.93vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy2.20+4.97vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.36-1.40vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.22+3.16vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.30+1.62vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.57-5.09vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.70-1.98vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.80+0.91vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.53-3.33vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.65-6.22vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.71-2.42vs Predicted
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18Amherst College0.96-0.63vs Predicted
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19Boston University3.03-10.65vs Predicted
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20Brandeis University0.55-1.15vs Predicted
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21Middlebury College1.85-7.53vs Predicted
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22McGill University1.31-5.93vs Predicted
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23Bates College2.26-11.25vs Predicted
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24University of Connecticut0.32-4.51vs Predicted
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26Williams College-0.32-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19Roger Williams University3.040.1%1st Place
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7.48Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.1%1st Place
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8.45Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.93University of Rhode Island2.870.1%1st Place
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11.97Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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6.6Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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12.16Tufts University2.220.0%1st Place
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11.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.300.0%1st Place
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5.91Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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10.02Northeastern University2.700.0%1st Place
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13.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.800.0%1st Place
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10.67Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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9.78Connecticut College2.650.1%1st Place
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14.58University of New Hampshire1.710.0%1st Place
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17.37Amherst College0.960.0%1st Place
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8.35Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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18.85Brandeis University0.550.0%1st Place
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13.47Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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16.07McGill University1.310.0%1st Place
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11.75Bates College2.260.0%1st Place
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19.49University of Connecticut0.320.0%1st Place
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21.04Williams College-0.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Blagden | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rice | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hughes | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Joseph | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Carney | 11.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Solomon Krevans | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Tevis Nichols | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Max Nickbarg | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guttorm Straume | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Parish | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Marks | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Stephanie Dowling | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 7.1% |
| Ian Towill | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Breslin-Jewer | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 19.9% | 21.6% | 12.8% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Charlotte Skinner | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| David Pierce | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Whitney Washburn | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 22.2% | 25.6% |
| Elizabeth Dorr | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 19.8% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.