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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.06+7.78vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.91+7.43vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.74+7.20vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+1.51vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.58vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+4.42vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.35+0.34vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.73+1.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.67+1.24vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.05-1.15vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.81+2.78vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.42-4.60vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.92-3.96vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin3.04-5.65vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.33-3.35vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.49-4.92vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.75-6.90vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.61-7.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.78Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.43Tufts University2.910.0%1st Place
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10.2Georgetown University2.740.0%1st Place
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5.51University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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8.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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10.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.0%1st Place
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7.34Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.92College of Charleston2.730.0%1st Place
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10.24George Washington University2.670.0%1st Place
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8.85Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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13.78University of South Florida1.810.0%1st Place
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7.4Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.04Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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11.65U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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11.08Connecticut College2.490.0%1st Place
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10.1Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.33Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Mullins | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Rachel Bryer | 14.4% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Carolyn Smith | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Bailey Carter | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Allyson Donahue | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Hannah McNomee | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Casey Klingler | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Darcy Jensen | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 30.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Maeve White | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Laura Wefer | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Hannah Hughes | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.4% |
| Charlotte List | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% |
| Taylor Ladd | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.4% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.