Race 1A

william-mary-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Vidar Minkovsky 44.3% 29.9% 17.5% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samara Leith 12.9% 20.0% 21.2% 18.7% 13.2% 7.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benjamin Hayes 2.2% 2.0% 4.9% 6.6% 8.6% 13.3% 12.4% 14.5% 16.7% 11.7% 7.1% 0.0%
Chris Anderson 4.1% 4.6% 7.1% 12.7% 15.5% 14.0% 17.3% 12.2% 7.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Cynthia Ciccotelli 5.3% 6.2% 9.8% 15.4% 16.6% 12.5% 15.0% 8.8% 5.9% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Haley Clemson 2.3% 5.0% 6.0% 8.7% 13.0% 16.8% 11.5% 14.1% 11.3% 8.4% 2.9% 0.0%
Matthew Roleke 24.0% 25.4% 23.8% 13.9% 8.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Amanda Nuse 2.0% 2.5% 3.4% 6.1% 8.3% 11.7% 13.3% 14.1% 14.5% 14.4% 9.7% 0.0%
Derek Thompson 1.5% 2.7% 2.9% 5.1% 6.8% 9.1% 11.2% 14.6% 16.0% 17.6% 12.5% 0.0%
Alexander Wade 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 2.8% 3.0% 4.1% 4.9% 8.8% 10.6% 16.6% 47.1% 0.0%
Emily Hann 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 4.1% 5.3% 7.3% 8.9% 10.5% 17.2% 23.4% 18.9% 0.0%
Benjamin Hayes 2.2% 2.0% 4.9% 6.6% 8.6% 13.3% 12.4% 14.5% 16.7% 11.7% 7.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.