Race 4A

william-mary-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Samara Leith 12.4% 19.3% 20.4% 21.5% 12.8% 7.6% 4.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Vidar Minkovsky 47.5% 27.6% 15.8% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chris Anderson 4.4% 5.3% 8.4% 11.2% 14.1% 14.8% 15.3% 12.8% 7.8% 5.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Amanda Nuse 1.3% 2.6% 3.9% 3.7% 8.4% 10.0% 10.8% 14.5% 19.0% 15.7% 10.1% 0.0%
Matthew Roleke 19.8% 27.2% 23.5% 13.7% 8.5% 4.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benjamin Hayes 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.2% 9.3% 11.7% 15.0% 15.4% 13.5% 12.6% 6.3% 0.0%
Haley Clemson 4.1% 4.4% 6.6% 12.1% 9.9% 16.2% 14.8% 12.1% 11.8% 5.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Cynthia Ciccotelli 5.4% 6.3% 9.9% 15.3% 17.5% 13.2% 13.6% 9.4% 6.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Benjamin Hayes 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.2% 9.3% 11.7% 15.0% 15.4% 13.5% 12.6% 6.3% 0.0%
Derek Thompson 1.6% 2.3% 3.4% 4.1% 8.4% 8.5% 11.8% 13.5% 16.9% 17.8% 11.7% 0.0%
Emily Hann 1.1% 1.1% 2.9% 3.2% 5.0% 8.5% 7.6% 11.7% 14.4% 21.6% 22.9% 0.0%
Alexander Wade 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 2.1% 3.6% 4.0% 5.3% 8.5% 9.8% 18.8% 45.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.