← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Stony Brook2.59+0.96vs Predicted
-
2Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+0.94vs Predicted
-
3Drexel University0.45+2.41vs Predicted
-
4William and Mary0.15+2.03vs Predicted
-
5William and Mary0.28+0.61vs Predicted
-
6Christopher Newport University1.36-2.40vs Predicted
-
7Virginia Tech-0.49+0.04vs Predicted
-
8Virginia Tech-0.49-0.96vs Predicted
-
9Monmouth University-0.72-1.45vs Predicted
-
10University of Buffalo-1.24-1.34vs Predicted
-
11University of Maryland-0.83-3.23vs Predicted
-
12American University-1.82-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.96SUNY Stony Brook2.590.4%1st Place
-
2.94Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.2%1st Place
-
5.41Drexel University0.450.1%1st Place
-
6.03William and Mary0.150.0%1st Place
-
5.61William and Mary0.280.0%1st Place
-
3.6Christopher Newport University1.360.1%1st Place
-
7.04Virginia Tech-0.490.0%1st Place
-
7.04Virginia Tech-0.490.0%1st Place
-
7.55Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
-
8.66University of Buffalo-1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.77University of Maryland-0.830.0%1st Place
-
9.44American University-1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vidar Minkovsky | 44.1% | 29.3% | 16.8% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 20.8% | 25.3% | 20.6% | 16.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Ellis | 5.5% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Chris Anderson | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Cynthia Ciccotelli | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 13.0% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 19.0% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Hayes | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Hayes | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Nuse | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 18.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Hann | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 16.9% | 20.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Thompson | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 18.3% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Wade | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 44.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.