Race 1B

south-1-senators-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lauren Burke 6.4% 7.7% 8.5% 11.2% 12.2% 15.7% 13.3% 11.9% 7.1% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Fletcher Sims 24.1% 20.4% 19.0% 14.6% 9.1% 6.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Isaac Clark 3.2% 2.8% 4.6% 5.4% 9.3% 10.4% 13.2% 16.0% 16.8% 10.8% 6.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Jason Carminati 16.1% 16.9% 16.2% 15.5% 13.5% 9.7% 6.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Louis Padnos 18.1% 16.1% 15.8% 14.6% 13.3% 9.8% 7.1% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brady Stagg 16.9% 18.8% 15.9% 14.3% 12.7% 9.5% 6.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Koeniger 1.4% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 3.5% 6.3% 7.2% 10.4% 16.8% 19.2% 16.9% 8.7% 2.0%
Bryan Schapperle 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.8% 3.9% 8.2% 15.1% 18.3% 29.7% 13.9%
Sam Fitzgerald 8.5% 9.1% 11.5% 11.4% 15.0% 13.3% 13.2% 9.6% 5.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Maxwell Plarr 3.1% 3.5% 4.2% 5.0% 6.0% 8.7% 14.4% 16.3% 16.5% 11.8% 6.6% 3.6% 0.3%
Sarah Hamm 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 2.5% 4.3% 5.6% 9.1% 14.7% 16.7% 20.4% 17.2% 5.8%
Kimannee Simon 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 3.7% 8.1% 8.6% 14.0% 21.4% 25.6% 10.5%
Luke Wakeen 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 4.5% 8.5% 13.6% 67.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.