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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.01+4.56vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.97+9.70vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.29+4.86vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.72+2.56vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.16+3.49vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.65+0.81vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.90-1.02vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.77+1.69vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03-3.52vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.45-3.43vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.54-4.83vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.74-6.30vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.24-2.62vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.97-9.30vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut0.19-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.56Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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11.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.970.0%1st Place
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7.86Bowdoin College2.290.1%1st Place
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6.56University of Rhode Island2.720.1%1st Place
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8.49Northeastern University2.160.1%1st Place
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6.81Harvard University2.650.1%1st Place
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5.98Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.69University of Vermont1.770.0%1st Place
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5.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.1%1st Place
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7.57Salve Regina University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.17Dartmouth College2.540.1%1st Place
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6.7Boston College2.740.1%1st Place
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11.38University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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5.7Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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13.34University of Connecticut0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Orgill | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 24.0% | 20.1% |
| Jack Fullerton | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Isherwood | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Peter Christensen | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Taylor Gavula | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| James Moody | 11.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Vincent Yannelli | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 4.7% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 10.2% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| John Silvestri | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Margaret Kilvert | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Drake Lyon | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 23.0% | 14.7% |
| Robby Gearon | 10.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| George Williams | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 54.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.