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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.85vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.83vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.81+2.68vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.91vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.70-1.31vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.97+1.36vs Predicted
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7American University0.36+3.47vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07-3.02vs Predicted
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9William and Mary2.13-1.90vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.60+0.16vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.83-1.33vs Predicted
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12St. John's College-0.84+0.16vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.30-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.85U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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5.68Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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3.09St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.3%1st Place
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3.69Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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7.36Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.47American University0.360.0%1st Place
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4.98Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.1William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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10.16Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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12.16St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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8.96George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 16.2% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 16.1% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 25.3% | 20.5% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 17.9% | 17.0% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 18.6% | 29.8% | 14.5% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 22.0% | 23.4% | 10.6% |
| Sarah Hamm | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 19.3% | 18.4% | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 66.6% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 17.7% | 10.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.