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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.26+2.72vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.59+3.20vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+0.44vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24+2.29vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.49+3.44vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University2.63-0.78vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.20-3.19vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.37+0.74vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.42-0.43vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.01+2.43vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University0.55+0.06vs Predicted
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12Amherst College0.89-1.66vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.91-2.74vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.27-2.30vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.64-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.72Tufts University3.260.2%1st Place
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5.2Boston College2.590.1%1st Place
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3.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.2%1st Place
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6.29Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.1%1st Place
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8.44Yale University1.490.0%1st Place
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5.22Salve Regina University2.630.1%1st Place
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3.81Harvard University3.200.2%1st Place
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8.74University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
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8.57Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.43University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.06Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.34Amherst College0.890.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Rhode Island0.910.0%1st Place
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11.7University of New Hampshire0.270.0%1st Place
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10.79Fairfield University0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Tong | 21.2% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Martz | 8.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 22.0% | 18.2% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frank Reeg | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skoda | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Sam Shannon | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 17.6% | 18.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Brown | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Kelsey Martins | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 33.3% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 15.3% |
| Noah Brayer | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| Ryan Walker | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.8% |
| River Iannaccone | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 21.1% |
| Lillian Vincens | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.