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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Jacob Martz 11.2% 10.5% 11.9% 9.9% 13.1% 10.1% 9.8% 8.7% 6.6% 3.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Alexander Tong 18.6% 18.9% 16.4% 13.6% 12.2% 8.3% 5.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Brayer 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 5.1% 6.2% 5.8% 7.9% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 11.7% 11.3% 6.5%
Frank Reeg 6.1% 8.1% 7.8% 9.9% 9.5% 12.1% 11.5% 10.2% 8.5% 6.9% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Nicholas Karnovsky 17.2% 16.2% 16.8% 11.4% 13.8% 9.1% 6.3% 4.7% 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Trevor Long 20.2% 19.7% 15.1% 17.1% 10.1% 6.3% 5.7% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chris Colbeth 4.0% 2.7% 4.0% 3.7% 5.7% 7.0% 8.1% 10.7% 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 8.0% 6.3% 4.6% 2.6%
Sam Shannon 10.1% 9.7% 12.3% 12.3% 11.4% 11.2% 10.7% 9.7% 5.7% 3.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Lillian Vincens 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% 8.4% 9.2% 10.4% 13.3% 13.5% 13.2% 10.7%
Charles Skoda 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 5.0% 5.6% 8.2% 8.6% 9.8% 12.2% 10.6% 9.3% 9.0% 6.1% 4.4% 1.7%
Kelsey Martins 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 3.6% 3.6% 6.7% 6.5% 8.7% 11.7% 15.9% 35.1%
Nathaniel Barton 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 2.5% 2.0% 3.3% 3.4% 5.2% 6.6% 6.5% 10.8% 13.0% 13.8% 16.6% 13.5%
Samantha Brown 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 4.4% 4.1% 6.3% 8.1% 8.0% 10.7% 11.3% 13.2% 9.1% 7.5% 5.5% 2.8%
Ryan Walker 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.9% 5.8% 6.3% 7.8% 7.8% 9.6% 10.1% 12.0% 13.8% 9.9% 5.5%
River Iannaccone 0.8% 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7% 4.5% 4.7% 8.0% 8.1% 9.7% 13.1% 18.0% 21.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.