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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.83vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.81vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.81+2.63vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.30+4.87vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-1.91vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.07-1.03vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13-0.05vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.97-0.69vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.70-5.18vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.60-0.88vs Predicted
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12St. John's College-0.84+0.12vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland0.83-3.19vs Predicted
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14American University0.36-3.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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3.81U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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3.09St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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4.97Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.95William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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7.31Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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3.82Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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10.12Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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12.12St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
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9.81University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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10.67American University0.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 16.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 16.6% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 19.8% | 16.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% |
| Fletcher Sims | 24.4% | 22.0% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 18.8% | 17.4% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Brady Stagg | 16.9% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 21.9% | 22.5% | 10.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 61.6% |
| Sarah Hamm | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 20.7% | 19.2% | 7.6% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 19.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.