Race 5B

south-1-senators-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Louis Padnos 16.5% 16.8% 13.5% 16.3% 15.1% 9.4% 7.4% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Brady Stagg 18.4% 16.1% 15.9% 14.4% 12.7% 11.1% 6.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lauren Burke 5.3% 6.8% 11.0% 10.3% 12.9% 14.1% 14.4% 12.1% 8.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sam Fitzgerald 8.6% 10.0% 9.8% 13.1% 13.7% 15.8% 12.0% 10.4% 3.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Nicholas Koeniger 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% 6.6% 9.4% 10.5% 16.1% 17.4% 16.6% 9.2% 2.1%
Jason Carminati 17.1% 16.7% 17.6% 12.4% 13.6% 11.1% 6.9% 2.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fletcher Sims 23.5% 20.7% 18.9% 13.2% 10.3% 7.3% 4.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Isaac Clark 3.7% 4.4% 4.1% 6.1% 7.2% 9.3% 14.1% 17.5% 16.4% 10.3% 5.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Maxwell Plarr 2.9% 4.1% 3.1% 6.9% 6.4% 7.4% 10.9% 19.3% 16.3% 13.2% 6.5% 2.8% 0.2%
Sarah Hamm 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.7% 3.0% 5.9% 7.5% 11.7% 18.8% 21.8% 17.0% 6.7%
Bryan Schapperle 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.0% 3.7% 6.0% 9.2% 13.8% 21.4% 27.3% 13.0%
Luke Wakeen 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 2.3% 4.7% 6.9% 15.8% 65.7%
Kimannee Simon 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 3.7% 4.6% 11.3% 15.0% 19.2% 26.2% 12.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.