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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.82vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.70+1.78vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.81+2.63vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.07+1.06vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-1.88vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.66-2.23vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13-0.01vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland0.83+1.66vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.97-1.57vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.30-2.21vs Predicted
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12American University0.36-1.48vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.60-2.77vs Predicted
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14St. John's College-0.84-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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3.78Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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5.06Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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3.12St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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3.77U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
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6.99William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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9.66University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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7.43Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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8.79George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.52American University0.360.0%1st Place
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10.23Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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12.22St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 17.0% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 17.3% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 6.1% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 24.6% | 21.7% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 16.3% | 18.3% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Hamm | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 16.9% | 20.6% | 20.3% | 4.5% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 16.9% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 16.3% | 8.9% | 3.3% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 26.8% | 13.6% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 24.7% | 10.9% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 67.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.