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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.86vs Predicted
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2William and Mary2.13+5.11vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+0.88vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.83vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.81+0.50vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.07-1.01vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.97+0.33vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.70-4.26vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.30-0.16vs Predicted
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10American University0.36+0.52vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.83-1.37vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.60-1.74vs Predicted
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13St. John's College-0.84-0.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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7.11William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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3.88U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
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3.17St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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5.5Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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4.99Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.33Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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3.74Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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8.84George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.52American University0.360.0%1st Place
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9.63University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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10.26Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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12.17St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 17.0% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 18.5% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jason Carminati | 15.6% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 23.5% | 20.7% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 7.8% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Brady Stagg | 16.8% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 20.4% | 28.8% | 14.6% |
| Sarah Hamm | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 16.0% | 6.3% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 22.1% | 24.6% | 10.6% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 65.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.