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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+2.15vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.81+3.61vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+0.85vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.70-0.25vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.19vs Predicted
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6William and Mary2.13+1.04vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.97+0.34vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07-3.01vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.30-1.15vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.83-1.30vs Predicted
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12American University0.36-1.52vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.60-2.76vs Predicted
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14St. John's College-0.84-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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5.61Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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3.85U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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3.75Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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3.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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7.04William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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7.34Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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4.99Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.85George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.7University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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10.48American University0.360.0%1st Place
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10.24Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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12.2St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 23.9% | 20.5% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 15.0% | 17.9% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 17.2% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 17.2% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% |
| Sarah Hamm | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 17.7% | 20.3% | 18.3% | 6.9% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 20.0% | 26.9% | 13.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 21.2% | 24.0% | 10.9% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 66.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.