← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.86vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.81+3.56vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.70+0.76vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.86vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University1.30+3.75vs Predicted
-
6William and Mary2.13+1.04vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-3.21vs Predicted
-
9American University0.36+1.49vs Predicted
-
10Washington College3.07-4.92vs Predicted
-
11University of Maryland0.83-1.28vs Predicted
-
12Hampton University0.60-1.95vs Predicted
-
13Christopher Newport University1.97-5.44vs Predicted
-
14St. John's College-0.84-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.86U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
-
5.56Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
-
3.76Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
-
3.14St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
-
8.75George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
-
7.04William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
3.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
-
10.49American University0.360.0%1st Place
-
5.08Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
-
9.72University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
-
10.05Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
-
7.56Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
-
12.19St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 15.5% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 15.9% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 16.8% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 23.9% | 20.7% | 19.2% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 9.9% | 2.5% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 18.0% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 14.4% | 18.2% | 31.2% | 13.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hamm | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 22.2% | 17.1% | 7.4% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 17.9% | 21.1% | 21.0% | 9.3% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 15.2% | 67.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.