← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University3.70+2.75vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.82vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.81+2.66vs Predicted
-
4University of Maryland0.83+5.75vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.66-1.26vs Predicted
-
6Christopher Newport University1.97+1.35vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-3.88vs Predicted
-
8American University0.36+2.50vs Predicted
-
10Hampton University0.60+0.13vs Predicted
-
11George Washington University1.30-2.17vs Predicted
-
12William and Mary2.13-5.05vs Predicted
-
13Washington College3.07-7.84vs Predicted
-
14St. John's College-0.84-1.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.75Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
-
3.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
-
5.66Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
-
9.75University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
-
3.74U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
-
7.35Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
-
3.12St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
-
10.5American University0.360.0%1st Place
-
10.13Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
-
8.83George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
-
6.95William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
5.16Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
-
12.23St. John's College-0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Stagg | 17.1% | 18.6% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 17.1% | 15.8% | 17.1% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Burke | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 16.7% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Hamm | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 20.9% | 20.3% | 17.5% | 6.4% |
| Jason Carminati | 17.9% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 18.5% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Fletcher Sims | 24.6% | 22.4% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 19.6% | 30.0% | 13.2% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 24.7% | 22.3% | 9.6% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 18.6% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.3% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Wakeen | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 67.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.