Race 1A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jack Bitney 17.5% 17.7% 18.4% 17.0% 11.6% 8.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
John Silvestri 11.9% 14.4% 14.5% 16.6% 13.1% 10.5% 9.7% 5.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Vincent Yannelli 7.2% 7.0% 8.7% 7.9% 13.2% 13.5% 13.2% 12.6% 10.1% 5.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Stephen Fletcher 3.1% 4.3% 6.0% 8.0% 7.9% 14.3% 12.1% 14.0% 14.2% 10.3% 5.2% 0.6%
Matthew Gibbs 13.3% 16.1% 16.8% 13.6% 13.7% 9.9% 7.8% 4.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
James Beatty 33.0% 24.9% 15.6% 12.0% 8.0% 4.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Luber 4.5% 4.0% 5.9% 7.4% 9.0% 9.0% 12.4% 14.7% 13.7% 11.9% 6.3% 1.2%
River Iannaccone 1.1% 1.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.8% 4.6% 7.4% 8.5% 12.2% 21.9% 24.9% 7.9%
Meredith Morran 3.6% 4.7% 5.7% 8.7% 11.1% 12.2% 13.2% 15.4% 12.9% 9.0% 3.2% 0.3%
Noah Brayer 3.0% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 5.9% 9.0% 11.5% 12.5% 16.8% 17.1% 10.4% 1.9%
Kelsey Martins 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.4% 2.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.9% 10.6% 17.1% 36.8% 12.4%
Hanna Desilets 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 2.9% 5.0% 11.3% 75.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.