Race 4A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
James Beatty 28.2% 26.6% 19.0% 12.0% 8.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Gibbs 12.8% 16.1% 15.5% 16.3% 13.7% 11.7% 6.9% 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Meredith Morran 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 9.3% 8.7% 11.4% 12.2% 13.9% 15.4% 9.5% 3.9% 0.7%
George Luber 2.9% 3.6% 5.2% 7.6% 10.2% 11.0% 13.3% 13.2% 13.2% 12.1% 6.9% 0.8%
Stephen Fletcher 3.8% 4.7% 5.7% 8.3% 10.1% 9.3% 13.3% 16.0% 12.5% 10.6% 5.0% 0.7%
Vincent Yannelli 6.5% 8.5% 8.4% 9.1% 11.1% 14.7% 14.7% 11.4% 9.0% 5.0% 1.5% 0.1%
John Silvestri 13.9% 12.8% 14.5% 15.2% 15.0% 10.6% 8.8% 5.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Jack Bitney 21.6% 16.5% 17.6% 13.4% 11.1% 10.8% 4.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Hanna Desilets 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 3.1% 4.9% 13.0% 73.7%
Noah Brayer 2.7% 2.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.7% 8.1% 11.7% 14.3% 15.4% 17.4% 10.2% 1.9%
Kelsey Martins 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 2.6% 3.6% 5.1% 7.6% 11.6% 18.9% 31.9% 13.8%
River Iannaccone 1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.9% 4.8% 6.1% 9.8% 13.7% 19.3% 27.0% 8.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.