Race 5A

admiral-alymers

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
James Beatty 32.6% 23.9% 18.2% 11.2% 7.9% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
John Silvestri 11.3% 14.4% 14.9% 16.3% 13.5% 11.9% 8.5% 6.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Vincent Yannelli 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 11.2% 11.1% 14.8% 13.1% 12.6% 8.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.2%
George Luber 2.8% 4.8% 4.5% 6.9% 9.0% 11.1% 13.2% 13.0% 15.3% 12.0% 6.5% 0.9%
Matthew Gibbs 14.3% 14.8% 17.1% 13.4% 14.1% 11.3% 6.9% 4.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Jack Bitney 17.8% 18.9% 17.4% 15.2% 12.6% 9.4% 4.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kelsey Martins 1.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 4.2% 6.1% 6.8% 10.3% 18.9% 31.5% 11.9%
Noah Brayer 2.3% 3.7% 5.1% 4.7% 5.9% 8.8% 10.1% 13.8% 15.5% 16.9% 10.5% 2.7%
Hanna Desilets 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 1.9% 2.7% 5.6% 12.5% 74.0%
Stephen Fletcher 5.0% 4.8% 5.2% 7.6% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2% 13.4% 14.4% 9.5% 4.5% 1.0%
Meredith Morran 3.7% 4.3% 6.2% 7.7% 8.4% 10.6% 14.6% 13.3% 15.6% 9.4% 5.0% 1.2%
River Iannaccone 1.3% 2.3% 1.5% 2.6% 3.5% 4.3% 5.7% 10.7% 12.6% 20.6% 26.8% 8.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.