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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.16vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.29vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.70+1.06vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.71+2.45vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.66-0.74vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.97+2.32vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+0.65vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01-2.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.07-3.42vs Predicted
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10American University0.36+1.84vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.83-0.05vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.60-0.64vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.30-3.26vs Predicted
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15St. John's College0.37-3.29vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.01-10.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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3.29St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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4.06Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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6.45Georgetown University2.710.0%1st Place
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4.26U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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8.32Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.65William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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5.65University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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5.58Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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11.84American University0.360.0%1st Place
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10.95University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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11.36Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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9.74George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.71St. John's College0.370.0%1st Place
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5.65University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 15.2% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 23.9% | 19.2% | 16.9% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 16.3% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Taselaar | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 12.6% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 20.6% | 30.6% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hamm | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 19.9% | 18.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 18.0% | 19.6% | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Monteiro | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 23.3% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.