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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech1.15+2.92vs Predicted
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2Michigan State University0.59+3.08vs Predicted
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3Denison University-0.21+4.13vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University1.49-0.87vs Predicted
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5Ohio State University0.25+1.03vs Predicted
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6Miami University0.10+0.32vs Predicted
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7Western Michigan University0.34-1.34vs Predicted
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8University of Toledo0.65-3.11vs Predicted
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9University of Texas-0.49-1.30vs Predicted
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10Ohio University-1.47-0.22vs Predicted
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11University of Tennessee-0.39-3.30vs Predicted
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12Northern Michigan University-1.97-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92Virginia Tech1.150.2%1st Place
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5.08Michigan State University0.590.1%1st Place
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7.13Denison University-0.210.1%1st Place
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3.13Syracuse University1.490.3%1st Place
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6.03Ohio State University0.250.1%1st Place
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6.32Miami University0.100.1%1st Place
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5.66Western Michigan University0.340.1%1st Place
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4.89University of Toledo0.650.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Texas-0.490.0%1st Place
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9.78Ohio University-1.470.0%1st Place
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7.7University of Tennessee-0.390.0%1st Place
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10.66Northern Michigan University-1.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Brady | 17.0% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Rantanen | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Margot Sherman Jollis | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 25.6% | 21.9% | 16.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Lewis | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Max Burson | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Mabie | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Luke Gossman | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Simon Varga | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% |
| Andrew Atkins | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 27.2% | 30.0% |
| Ian Coyne | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 5.7% |
| Ian Pope | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 9.3% | 21.3% | 53.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.