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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.38+5.75vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+6.16vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.42+3.76vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.37+3.07vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.67+4.56vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+4.20vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.21+0.57vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03+0.19vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.61+1.28vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.34+0.98vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.75-1.43vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.49-1.54vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.92-4.07vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.23+0.60vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.96-6.47vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.35-8.92vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.05-8.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.76Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.07University of Rhode Island3.370.1%1st Place
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9.56George Washington University2.670.0%1st Place
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10.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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7.57Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.1%1st Place
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10.28Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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10.98Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.57Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.46Connecticut College2.490.0%1st Place
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8.93Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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14.6University of South Florida1.230.0%1st Place
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8.53University of Vermont2.960.1%1st Place
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7.08Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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8.3Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Carolyn Smith | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Hannah Polster | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Sarah Hermus | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| Sarah Williams | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 5.5% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% |
| Taylor Ladd | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Charlotte List | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Maeve White | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| Kelly Stukbauer | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 52.7% |
| Amina Brown | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.