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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.17vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.71+4.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.13vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.59vs Predicted
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5William and Mary2.13+2.99vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.70-1.84vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.07-1.67vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01-2.29vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.97-0.70vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland0.83+0.90vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.30-1.09vs Predicted
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13American University0.36-1.19vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.60-2.74vs Predicted
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15St. John's College0.37-3.30vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.01-10.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.23Georgetown University2.710.1%1st Place
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4.13U. S. Naval Academy3.660.2%1st Place
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3.41St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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7.99William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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4.16Old Dominion University3.700.2%1st Place
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5.33Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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5.71University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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8.3Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.9University of Maryland0.830.0%1st Place
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9.91George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.81American University0.360.0%1st Place
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11.26Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.7St. John's College0.370.0%1st Place
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5.71University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 15.0% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Taselaar | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 16.4% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 21.0% | 19.8% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 15.8% | 12.8% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Hamm | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Schapperle | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 17.7% | 19.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimannee Simon | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 20.5% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Monteiro | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 24.8% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.