Race 1A

midweek-firefly

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Robby Gearon 14.8% 15.0% 17.5% 15.5% 15.0% 11.0% 7.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Welsh 12.4% 14.6% 15.0% 15.4% 15.8% 11.8% 9.9% 4.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Emily Croteau 4.2% 6.1% 4.7% 6.7% 8.8% 12.3% 15.9% 23.3% 13.1% 3.9% 0.7% 0.3%
John Rolander 25.9% 23.2% 18.7% 12.9% 10.0% 5.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Ziobro 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 2.4% 2.9% 5.9% 12.9% 23.2% 27.2% 22.2%
Pierre DuPont 4.8% 5.5% 7.3% 7.8% 9.1% 15.3% 17.7% 17.3% 11.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Alex Moreno 11.1% 10.1% 11.7% 14.7% 14.8% 15.1% 10.3% 9.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Tong 22.8% 19.0% 16.5% 14.1% 13.6% 7.6% 4.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Caso 2.4% 3.8% 5.5% 8.3% 8.0% 13.2% 20.2% 20.6% 12.4% 5.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Alexander Peraire-Bueno 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 3.5% 6.6% 9.1% 25.6% 26.5% 14.5% 5.7%
Laura Schlenker 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 2.2% 9.3% 16.5% 29.1% 38.0%
Sabrina McDonnell 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 3.4% 9.7% 20.2% 27.6% 33.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.