Race 4A

midweek-firefly

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sarah Ziobro 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 3.5% 5.3% 7.5% 14.6% 29.0% 34.7%
Sarah Caso 3.0% 4.3% 5.1% 7.5% 10.0% 12.4% 16.3% 17.0% 14.2% 7.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Charles Welsh 13.7% 14.6% 13.9% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
John Rolander 26.4% 24.2% 18.3% 12.6% 10.4% 4.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pere Puig 1.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 4.2% 11.3% 12.8% 16.6% 18.6% 15.2% 7.3% 3.0%
Alexander Tong 23.2% 18.7% 17.2% 15.4% 12.2% 7.4% 3.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Moreno 11.1% 10.4% 14.2% 14.1% 15.8% 12.0% 11.6% 7.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Kahlil Oppenheimer 1.1% 1.4% 2.5% 3.8% 4.6% 7.2% 8.9% 15.0% 19.1% 19.2% 13.7% 3.5%
Laura Schlenker 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 6.3% 11.7% 23.9% 49.5%
Alexander Peraire-Bueno 0.6% 1.3% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.2% 6.8% 10.3% 16.1% 24.1% 21.6% 8.2%
Emily Croteau 3.5% 3.3% 5.4% 8.0% 8.2% 15.8% 16.5% 17.1% 12.7% 6.9% 2.2% 0.4%
Robby Gearon 16.1% 17.5% 15.6% 16.0% 14.8% 9.4% 7.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.