← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+7.74vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+8.13vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.82+4.09vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University3.70+3.41vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.73vs Predicted
-
6College of Charleston3.89+0.70vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University3.25+2.37vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College3.25+1.52vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University4.36-4.05vs Predicted
-
10Brown University3.48-1.79vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-0.46vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University3.49-3.40vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont2.90-2.46vs Predicted
-
14Boston University3.13-4.12vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University2.35-2.27vs Predicted
-
16Dartmouth College2.87-5.28vs Predicted
-
17University of Virginia2.39-4.26vs Predicted
-
18North Carolina State University0.89-0.85vs Predicted
-
19Duke University1.19-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
-
10.13University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
-
7.09Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
7.41Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
-
8.73U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
-
6.7College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
-
9.37Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
-
9.52SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
-
4.95Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
8.21Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
10.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
-
8.6George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
10.54University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
-
9.88Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
-
12.73Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
-
10.72Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
-
12.74University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
-
17.15North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
-
16.23Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 6.8% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Charles Rees | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.9% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| William Crary | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 5.5% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 4.9% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 20.4% | 48.8% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 26.4% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.