← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College2.87+9.85vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University3.25+7.37vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.44+5.59vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University4.36+1.03vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University3.49+3.61vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.64vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont2.90+3.81vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+2.33vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University2.35+3.67vs Predicted
-
10University of Virginia2.39+2.75vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-0.47vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College3.25-2.34vs Predicted
-
13Brown University3.48-4.88vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University3.82-6.92vs Predicted
-
15Stanford University3.70-7.60vs Predicted
-
16College of Charleston3.89-9.39vs Predicted
-
17Duke University1.19-0.67vs Predicted
-
18Boston University3.13-8.25vs Predicted
-
19North Carolina State University0.89-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.85Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
-
9.37Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
-
8.59U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
-
5.03Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
8.61George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
-
8.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
-
10.81University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
-
10.33University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
-
12.67Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
-
12.75University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
-
10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
-
9.66SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
-
8.12Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
7.08Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
7.4Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
-
6.61College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
-
16.33Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
-
9.75Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
-
16.87North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Michael Popp | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.5% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| William Crary | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 4.6% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 9.0% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Rees | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 22.8% | 36.7% |
| Brendan Cook | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 46.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.