← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College2.87+9.89vs Predicted
-
2George Washington University3.49+6.35vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University4.36+2.17vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+6.14vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston3.89+1.93vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+4.44vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy3.44+1.58vs Predicted
-
8Boston University3.13+2.05vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.70-1.66vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University3.82-3.14vs Predicted
-
11University of Vermont2.90-0.28vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University2.35+1.29vs Predicted
-
13Brown University3.48-4.89vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University3.25-4.55vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College3.25-5.80vs Predicted
-
16University of Virginia2.39-3.32vs Predicted
-
17North Carolina State University0.89+0.02vs Predicted
-
18Duke University1.19-1.53vs Predicted
-
19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-10.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.89Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
-
8.35George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
5.17Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
10.14University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
-
6.93College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
-
10.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
-
8.58U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
-
10.05Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
-
7.34Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
-
6.86Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
10.72University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
-
13.29Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
-
8.11Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
9.45Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
-
9.2SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
-
12.68University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
-
17.02North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
-
16.47Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
-
8.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Charles Rees | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| Michael Popp | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Crary | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Schofield | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 4.8% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Craven | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 49.9% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 11.2% | 26.8% | 32.9% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.