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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.06vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+8.56vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.49+5.38vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.89+2.68vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.70+2.66vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+2.27vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+3.16vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82-0.81vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.44-0.62vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.90+0.70vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.25-1.68vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.87-0.72vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.25-3.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-5.14vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia2.39-2.43vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.35-3.10vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University0.890.00vs Predicted
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18Boston University3.13-8.27vs Predicted
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19Duke University1.19-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.06Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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8.38George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.68College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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7.66Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.27Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.16University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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7.19Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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10.7University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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9.32Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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11.28Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
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9.12SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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12.57University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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12.9Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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17.0North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.73Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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16.19Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 14.4% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Charles Rees | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| William Crary | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 5.5% |
| Matthew Schofield | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 4.4% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 19.0% | 51.2% |
| Brendan Cook | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 10.5% | 27.3% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.