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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.53+2.75vs Predicted
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2Harvard University-0.46+7.41vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.34+1.26vs Predicted
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4Harvard University-0.20+5.03vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.08-0.21vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.73-0.23vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.80-1.03vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College-0.25+0.82vs Predicted
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9Brown University-0.07-0.66vs Predicted
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10Harvard University0.45-3.33vs Predicted
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11Brown University0.41-4.27vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.11-0.99vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.22-4.08vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.30-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Tufts University1.5320.3%1st Place
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9.41Harvard University-0.463.1%1st Place
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4.26Tufts University1.3416.4%1st Place
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9.03Harvard University-0.202.8%1st Place
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4.79Brown University1.0812.8%1st Place
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5.77Bowdoin College0.738.6%1st Place
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5.97Tufts University0.809.3%1st Place
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8.82Bowdoin College-0.253.6%1st Place
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8.34Brown University-0.074.3%1st Place
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6.67Harvard University0.456.7%1st Place
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6.73Brown University0.417.2%1st Place
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11.01University of New Hampshire-1.111.1%1st Place
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8.92University of New Hampshire-0.222.7%1st Place
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11.53University of New Hampshire-1.301.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Owen | 20.3% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Straw | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 10.0% |
| Walter McFarland | 16.4% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Hogan-Lopez | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 7.4% |
| Julian Dahiya | 12.8% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Shea McGrath | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Blake Vogel | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Owen Warren | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 6.1% |
| William Baker | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Theresa Straw | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Gabby Collins | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 19.9% | 26.7% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 6.3% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.